Holiday shopping: Trends, stats and data-driven forecasts for 2021

source : https://business.adobe.com/blog/the-latest/holiday-shopping-stats-trends-data-driven-predictions-for-2021

We have collectively gotten rid of the term “unprecedented” since March 2020. Retailers have also felt these changes as strongly as anyone. The disruptions to business as usual have been huge, but so are new opportunities for growth.

One, people are more likely to use ecommerce than ever before, which is good news both for brands and companies who were prepared for it. Retailers need to be more flexible and ingenious as they face new challenges such as supply chain problems that threaten the holiday shopping season.

You don’t have a crystal ball to guide you through this. But there is data, which with good analytics is almost the exact same thing. Retailers can prepare for the next Christmas shopping season as well as the beginning of 2022 by using the information we have so far.

To help retailers make the most out of the holiday season, and to kick off 2022 in the right manner, we have collected detailed data from last year’s holiday seasons and so far in 2021.

Contents

The 2020 pandemic and the evolution of holiday shopping

This is not the first time we have experienced a pandemic. Some of our most valuable insights are gained from watching how consumers and businesses gradually emerge from complete lockdown. The global pandemic of 2020 required that people stay home in large numbers for the first time. We all depended more on ecommerce than ever. That year, online shopping was a new phenomenon.

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  • The 2020 Cyber Week saw shoppers spend 34.4 billion, a 20.7 percent increase in year-over-year (YOY).
  • Cyber Monday 2020 saw a record $10.8 billion spent online. This is a jump of 15.1 per cent YOY — The largest ever online shopping day in US History.

The holiday shopping season this year is historic, but not for the same reasons. Despite people shopping in person, the problems in labor and the global supply chains continue to plague retailers. This resulted in a November unlike any others.

According to Taylor Schreiner (director of Adobe Digital Insights), “Online sales on major shopping days like Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday are declining for the first time ever in history.” “What we now know is Cyber Week starting to look more like Cyber Month.”

We can use data from Adobe Holiday Shopping Insights to help us understand the new season and make suggestions for how it might impact your future decisions.

We learned a lot from the internet shopping boom

In 2020, quarantines and pandemics kept people home while stimulus checks gave some groups a little more buying power. The rise of online shopping gave retailers some key lessons that helped to shape 2021 strategies.

  • Online shopping is now the norm.
  • It is crucial to use contactless shopping.
  • Shipping costs are on the rise.

As we enter the holiday season of 2021, it was important to consider whether these trends would be consistent throughout the year and how they would influence holiday shopping strategies in 2021.

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Overview of holiday shopping in 2021

The 2021 holiday season exceeded all expectations. Consumers spent $42.3 billion by mid-November 2021 — more than the $39.8 million forecasted and surpassing the $22.7 billion total for the same period in 2020 ($32.7 billion).

Cyber Week 2021 did not break any records when compared to previous year’s.

  • Thanksgiving Day online revenues hit $5.14 trillion.
  • BlackFriday online revenues came in at $8.9 Billion.
  • Cyber Monday online purchases topped out at $10.7 million

This means that Cyber Week was not the first time Cyber Week began. The online shopping market grew significantly by 11.9 percent last year, with $109.8 billion spent between November 1 and 29. This puts the figure in a more manageable context. Online sales surpassed $3 billion for 22 consecutive November days, which is a new milestone. It is clear that retailers were successful in their efforts to increase sales earlier in the season, as well as to combat shipping and supply chain concerns.

Holiday shopping trends: What are consumers buying?

Cyber Week is a great opportunity for retailers to focus their efforts on what is in demand and how they can harness consumer interest by looking at the items that were purchased. Here are some of the top-selling items on key shopping days this year.

  • Veterans Day: PlayStation 5, Lego, air fryers
  • Thanksgiving: VTech toys and FIFA 22, Amazon Echo Show
  • Black Friday: Nintendo Switch, Barbie toys, Oculus VR
  • Cyber Monday: Hot Wheels toys and Xbox Series S, Apple AirPods

The weekend was won by toys, from low-tech Lego to high tech VR systems.

What they’re buying

For the second half, retailers must answer the following questions: How much product will they need on their shelves versus in warehouse shelves? How will consumers find their products and shop for them? And how will they receive their orders?

BOPIS (Buy online, Pick up in Store)

Since last holiday season, curbside pickup has increased in popularity for groceries and holiday gifts. BOPIS orders increased 40 percent in 2020 compared to 2019. This trend was flat in October 2021 compared to October 2020. Cyber Week continued this trend.

  • 18% of Cyber Monday online purchases choose curbside pickup at checkout — an slight decrease from last year’s 20 percent.

BOPIS was needed because of the increased number of shoppers in stores and the increase in online sales earlier in the year. However, there has not been a significant rise in demand.

Online holiday shopping

No one was surprised that online sales soared during the 2020 holiday season. Sales surpassed $10 billion just on Cyber Monday. The recent holiday shopping weekend confirmed that prediction.

  • An estimated $109 billion was spent online at the end of Cyber Week 2021 compared to $90 billion in 2020.

Mobile holiday shopping

Since 2015, smartphone shopping has been steadily increasing. Smartphone sales have been on a steep rise since 2015.

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Cyber Week was predicted to continue the holiday trend.

  • 42% of holiday sales revenue was generated by smartphones at the end Cyber Week 2021. This compares to 40% of holiday sales revenue at the end Cyber Monday 2020.
  • Weekend Smartphone revenue peaked Cyber Monday, accounting $4.5 billion.
  • Mobile conversion rates for Cyber Week averaged 3.1%, as compared to a 5.9% conversion rate for desktop purchases.

Perhaps mobile shopping’s steep decline has been stopped by the fact that more people work from home and are more connected to their computers. However, the peak of mobile shopping last year was on Christmas Day so it is too early to know. As the holiday season progresses, retailers will be closely monitoring the data.

Holiday discount trends

Cyber Week was expected to offer deep discounts, but many retailers couldn’t afford the drastic price cuts they have offered in recent years. Many businesses are still facing challenges due to inflation and supply chain issues, especially during the holiday season.

Inflation for online shopping would typically drop by about 5 percent just before the holiday season. However, this year prices are higher than usual, which has reduced savings for consumers, even when holiday season deals were available.

Retailers attempted to compensate for this by offering discounts sooner even though they weren’t as deep in the past years. By October 2021

  • Electronics Discounts hit 8.7 percent in 2021 compared to 13.2 in 2020.
  • Discounts on Sporting Goods – compared to 11.2 per cent last year.

Cyber Weekend is when consumers expect deep discounts. Prices dropped in all categories over Cyber Weekend. But, interestingly, not always at the lowest point of the season.

  • Computer discounts fell 14.2 percent on Cyber Monday compared with 14.3 percent average discounts for early November.
  • Electronics Discounts were the most dramatic during Thanksgiving Day at 11.8 percent.
  • Toy discounts have a bottom line of 24.3 percent on Cyber and Small Business Saturday.
  • Home improvements prices were slightly higher this Cyber Week, with only the slightest (0.02%) discount in October.

Looking ahead: Predictions about the holiday season in 2021 and the beginning of 2022

We have key insights to share with you about the holiday season in 2020 and the 2021 Cyber Week.

1. Online sales will continue their rise in popularity

Ecommerce is predicted to increase holiday spending online by $207 billion this year and it shows no signs of slowing down. Online shopping has become the new way of doing business.

There is no time like the present to wait for retailers to offer online shops that enable customers to see inventory, order, and arrange seamless pickup or delivery.

2. BOPIS will rise again

BOPIS will continue to be a vital offering, with shipping costs and delays on the rise. BOPIS will continue to set records, with its peak in the days leading up to Christmas. BOPIS may be offered by retailers and could account for 40% of all online orders.

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The option could also be the deciding factor in where consumers shop, especially during the holiday season 2021. Consumers will have to pick up their orders due to longer shipping delays and higher shipping costs.

As we move into 2022, many consumers won’t be willing to give up their newfound luxury. BOPIS will continue to be a key component for retailers, particularly as logistical and supply chain issues continue to delay shipment to consumers.

3. Logistical problems will continue to exist

Many holiday shopping trends show signs of recovery. However, logistical issues are creating new challenges to retailers.

  1. Holiday demand is making it worse. Out of stock messages have increased more than 250% by 2021
  2. Shipping prices are rising. These costs will peak around December 20-21, at an average $15 per order for last-minute purchases.Stockouts can be addressed by retailers who offer alternatives to products that aren’t in stock. Many retailers are encouraging customers to shop early and warning them about stock shortages.

    These logistical problems won’t be solved immediately after the holidays. Online shopping features such as related product suggestions or inventory management capabilities will be essential well into 2022.

4. Mobile commerce will continue its growth and evolution

Although mobile checkouts in 2021 won’t be able to compete with the 2020 lockdown-fueled fervor, mobile behavior will continue to change in the digital-first age. Smartphones are becoming smarter and consumers are changing their expectations. Generations that grew up with smartphones are gaining more buying power. Your business’s ecommerce solution must be responsive and native.

Your brand is more than just a place to make purchases. They can get exact business information, locate your store, contact customer service, coordinate BOPIS and make in-store contactless payments. It’s time to create a mobile-friendly and robust experience.

How to prepare for the holiday shopping season in 2021

The holiday season promises to keep both retailers and consumers on their toes. This holiday season will be a new era for both buyers and sellers due to the unpredictable pivots of public health, shipping and supply chain problems, and continued growth of ecommerce.

You can win the holiday season by making decisions that are based on the most current and accurate data. This will position you for continued success in the New Year. Adobe Commerce is able to assist you with all that by giving you the data you need.

The 2021 Adobe Holiday Shopping Insights Report is the best place for you to start. It provides stats that are updated in real-time so you can respond to current trends and identify the ones you want to follow.

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