According to Deloitte, holiday retail sales will rise between 7 and 9 percent by 2021 according to their annual holiday retail forecast. According to Deloitte, holiday sales will reach $1.28 trillion to $1.3 billion in the November-January timeframe. Deloitte predicts that ecommerce sales will increase by 11 percent to 15% year-over-year during the holiday season 2021-2022. E-commerce holiday sales will reach between $210 billion to $218 billion in this season, according to Deloitte. In 2021, the forecast predicts a strong growth rate in spite of already high retail sales and a rise in disposable income which is likely to stay flat going into the season.
Total Retail’s View: Although retail sales are expected to rise significantly in the holiday season, which is a good thing for retailers going into the crucial fourth quarter, it remains to be seen if brands and retailers will be able meet this increasing demand within tight time frames and make a profit given rising freight and air costs. Additionally, ports have become congested to levels never seen before, which hinders retailers’ efforts in getting products to customers. Even when the goods make it to the retailers’ distribution centers or warehouses, companies face labor shortages which slow down final distribution to customers who are increasingly impatient. While increased sales can be a problem, retailers still have many supply chain problems to solve to make 2021 a great holiday season.